Today's presidential vote might be rather close in the popular vote, but the electoral college totals are (and have been) favoring the re-election of President Obama. For much of the last year or more, the strategies of Democrats and Republicans have been tightly focused on those numbers, not the popular vote - because it is the electoral college which determines winners.
Since day one of the Obama presidency, there have been very loud voices opposing him and any agenda he put forth, and those voices have truly gotten louder in the last year. But the number of those voices? They've always been a small percentage of the public.
Those pesky percentages ...
My math is usually as weak as a newborn kitten, no matter when I employ it.
" ... in the United States, presidential elections are won state by state,
not at the national level. And with remarkable unanimity, the leading
aggregators have consistently concluded that polling in the swing states
-- Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North
Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin -- has favored
Obama. And that in the vast majority of the 100,000 simulated elections
Silver runs each day, the president has come out on top.
"The truth is that any statistician can build a model. They do it all the
time. They make assumptions about the electorate, assign weights to
polls and economic indicators, etc., and then they wait for the sausage
to come out. No doubt some models are better than others, and some
models are simply better for a while and then regress to the mean. But
ultimately, the numbers are dependent on the values you place on them.
As the computer programmers like to say, garbage in, garbage out."
Time will tell.